Pair #114

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1318

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6149

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Alec Pierce to sign with Denver, and Pierce signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -15.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 184
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -19.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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