Pair #11399

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1516

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18458

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -77.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0058 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -81.52% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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