Pair #11396

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1036

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Francesco Molinari has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-FMOL

Will Francesco Molinari lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 10201

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Francesco Molinari is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.5210 + ~$0.0183 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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