Pair #11394

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3686

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1036

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0226 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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