Pair #11393

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-FMOL

Will Francesco Molinari lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 10201

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3686

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0990 + ~$0.0064 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue