Pair #11391

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4049

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1036

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900 + ~$0.0195 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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