Pair #11389

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4049

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-FMOL

The Open Championship: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3686

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -78.33% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0083 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -82.56% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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