Pair #11383

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-KBRA

The Open Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2386

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-KBRA

The Open Championship: Will Keegan Bradley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 214

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0271 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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