Pair #11379

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-KBRA

The Open Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11864

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-KBRA

The Open Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2386

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -93.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0173 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -97.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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