Pair #11358

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH

Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T08:00:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Competing on LIV in Q1 2027 has no logical connection to a 2026 Open Championship finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0197 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -9.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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