Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-27-VGK
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026-27 Stanley CupĀ® Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4008
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Vegas Golden Knights wins the 2026-27 Stanley CupĀ® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLWEST-27-VGK
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference Finals?
Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 613
YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026-27 NHL Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNHL-27-UTA/KXNHLWEST-27-UTA] Utah Mammoth is in the Western Conference; winning the Stanley Cup requires first winning the Western Conference Finals.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-10.77%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1000
+ ~$0.0155 est. fees
Days to maturity:
350
Hurdle yield:
4.51%
Excess yield:
-15.29%
BELOW HURDLE