Pair #11351

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8968

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC

The Open Championship: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 7797

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -71.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7600 + ~$0.0134 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -75.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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