Pair #11350

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17555

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RHEN

The Open Championship: Will Russell Henley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -69.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100 + ~$0.0148 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -73.85% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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