Pair #11347

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RFOX

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 300

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RFOX

The Open Championship: Will Ryan Fox finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5110

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU] Winning any major doesn't require winning/placing top20 specifically at The Open Championship, since he could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -31.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0103 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -35.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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