Pair #11345

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 10376

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -72.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7900 + ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -76.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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