Pair #11344

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6522

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20870

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR3LEAD-THOC26-VHOV/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-VHOV] Leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-20 finish (could collapse), and finishing top-20 doesn't require having led after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900 + ~$0.0203 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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