Pair #11335

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5773

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 59263

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0019 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.56% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue