Pair #11330

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23780

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -72.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8000 + ~$0.0121 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -76.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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