Pair #11329

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5683

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-BHAR

Will Brian Harman lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 25578

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0110 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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