Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-BDEC
Bryson DeChambeau to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1011
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-BDEC
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17576
YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-THAT] These events involve different tours/times with no logical dependency between them.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
35.04%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.7950
+ ~$0.0130 est. fees
Days to maturity:
259
Hurdle yield:
4.48%
Excess yield:
+30.56%
PROFITABLE