Pair #11326

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33065

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW] Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -27.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0124 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -32.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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