Pair #11324

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 80594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 14975

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -68.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900 + ~$0.0158 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -73.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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