Pair #11323

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40369

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 25110

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -69.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100 + ~$0.0152 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -73.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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