Pair #11322

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40369

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JROS

Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 34048

YES ask: 0.0210
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010 + ~$0.0028 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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