Pair #1132

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BCAU

Valspar Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7953

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bud Cauley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BCAU

Valspar Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17850

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bud Cauley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:18:51Z

Reasoning: If Bud Cauley finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue