Pair #11319

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAFB10-26-PSU

Will Penn State win the College Football Big Ten Championship?

Series: KXNCAAFB10
Entity: Penn St.
Expiration: 2026-12-06T04:30:00Z
Volume: 5832

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Penn St. wins the 2026 College Football Big Ten Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-PSU

Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Penn St.
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10231

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Penn St. is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAFB10-26-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Teams can qualify for the CFP without winning their conference championship (at-large bids), and winning the Big 10 championship does not guarantee a CFP berth in all scenarios. Neither event logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -39.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0165 est. fees
Days to maturity: 143
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -43.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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