Pair #11318

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAFB10-26-USC

Will USC win the College Football Big Ten Championship?

Series: KXNCAAFB10
Entity: USC
Expiration: 2026-12-06T04:30:00Z
Volume: 13179

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If USC wins the 2026 College Football Big Ten Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-USC

Will USC qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: USC
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If USC is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAFB10-26-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Teams can qualify for the CFP without winning their conference championship (at-large bids), and winning the Big 10 championship does not guarantee a CFP berth in all scenarios. Neither event logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -47.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700 + ~$0.0211 est. fees
Days to maturity: 143
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -52.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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