Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNCAAFB10-26-ORE
Will Oregon win the College Football Big Ten Championship?
Series: KXNCAAFB10
Entity: Oregon
Expiration: 2026-12-06T04:30:00Z
Volume: 9426
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Oregon wins the 2026 College Football Big Ten Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ORE
Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Playoffs?
Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Oregon
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1714
YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Oregon is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAFB10-26-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Teams can qualify for the CFP without winning their conference championship (at-large bids), and winning the Big 10 championship does not guarantee a CFP berth in all scenarios. Neither event logically necessitates the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-67.60%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5300
+ ~$0.0252 est. fees
Days to maturity:
143
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-72.03%
BELOW HURDLE