Pair #11316

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAFB10-26-OSU

Will Ohio State win the College Football Big Ten Championship?

Series: KXNCAAFB10
Entity: Ohio St.
Expiration: 2026-12-06T04:30:00Z
Volume: 7718

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ohio St. wins the 2026 College Football Big Ten Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-OSU

Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Ohio St.
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3239

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ohio St. is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAFB10-26-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Teams can qualify for the CFP without winning their conference championship (at-large bids), and winning the Big 10 championship does not guarantee a CFP berth in all scenarios. Neither event logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -62.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0282 est. fees
Days to maturity: 143
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -66.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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