Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-LA
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 93436
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Los Angeles R before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-LAR
Will Los Angeles R win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 3842644
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Los Angeles R wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-35.44%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1700
+ ~$0.0099 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-39.86%
BELOW HURDLE