Pair #11292

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-LA

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 619

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alec Pierce's next team is Los Angeles R before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LAR

Will Los Angeles R be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4535

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2000
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles R is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Alec Pierce to sign there, and Pierce signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -79.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8100 + ~$0.0108 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -83.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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