Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-LA
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 93436
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Los Angeles R before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LAR
Will Los Angeles R be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4535
YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2000
Last: 0.8000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Los Angeles R is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-79.51%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.8100
+ ~$0.0108 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-83.93%
BELOW HURDLE