Pair #11290

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-LA

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8255

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stefon Diggs's next team is Los Angeles R before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LAR

Will Los Angeles R be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Los Angeles R
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4535

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2000
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles R is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -77.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7500 + ~$0.0147 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -82.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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