Pair #11274

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-GB

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Green Bay
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 24686

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Green Bay before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-GB

Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Green Bay
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 905209

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Green Bay wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -14.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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