Pair #11272

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-GB

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Green Bay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4637

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Green Bay before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-GB

Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Green Bay
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 905209

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Green Bay wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -13.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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