Pair #11252

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-ARI

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Arizona
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2439

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Arizona before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-ARI

Will Arizona be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Arizona
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9947

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Arizona is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -14.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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