Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-NYJ
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3968
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is New York J before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NYJ
Will New York J be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33700
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If New York J is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-27.18%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1200
+ ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-31.60%
BELOW HURDLE