Pair #11238

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-NYJ

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1694

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is New York J before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NYJ

Will New York J be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33700

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New York J is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -27.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -31.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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