Pair #11236

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-NYJ

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 619

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is New York J before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NYJ

Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 101005

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New York J wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.77% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -7.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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