Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-IND
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4766
YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Stefon Diggs's next team is Indianapolis before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-IND
Will Indianapolis win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 299337
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Indianapolis wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Stefon Diggs signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Diggs to be on the team. No logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-5.44%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0200
+ ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-9.86%
BELOW HURDLE