Pair #11223

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-IND

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4766

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Indianapolis before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-IND

Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 692

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Indianapolis is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -57.02% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0161 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -61.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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