Pair #11221

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-IND

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 54786

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maxx Crosby's next team is Indianapolis before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-IND

Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15908

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Indianapolis wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Maxx Crosby signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -14.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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