Pair #11219

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-IND

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5340

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Indianapolis before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-IND

Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15908

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Indianapolis wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -13.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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