Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-IND
Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15908
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Indianapolis wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-IND
Will Indianapolis have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2272
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Indianapolis has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
1.17%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9900
+ ~$0.0034 est. fees
Days to maturity:
207
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-3.29%
BELOW HURDLE