Pair #11218

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-IND

Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15908

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Indianapolis wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-IND

Will Indianapolis have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Indianapolis
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2272

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Indianapolis has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 1.17% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900 + ~$0.0034 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -3.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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