Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-JAX
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 580
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is Jacksonville before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-JAC
Will Jacksonville win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 408850
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jacksonville wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the championship, nor does winning the championship require any specific player signing. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-8.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0300
+ ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-12.42%
BELOW HURDLE