Pair #11212

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-JAX

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 73039

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maxx Crosby's next team is Jacksonville before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-JAC

Will Jacksonville have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5390

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacksonville has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Maxx Crosby to sign with Denver, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -12.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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