Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-JAX
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 580
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is Jacksonville before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-JAC
Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23146
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jacksonville wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-19.44%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0800
+ ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-23.86%
BELOW HURDLE