Pair #11206

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-JAX

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 73039

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maxx Crosby's next team is Jacksonville before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-JAC

Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23146

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacksonville wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Maxx Crosby signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -19.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -23.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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