Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-JAC
Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23146
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jacksonville wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-JAC
Will Jacksonville have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5390
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jacksonville has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
6.17%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9600
+ ~$0.0066 est. fees
Days to maturity:
207
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
+1.71%
PROFITABLE