Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LV
Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division?
Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 89902
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-LV
Will Las Vegas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2035256
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Las Vegas wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl (could lose in playoffs), and winning the Super Bowl does not require winning the division (wild card teams can win the Super Bowl).
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
5.66%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9700
+ ~$0.0034 est. fees
Days to maturity:
179
Hurdle yield:
4.45%
Excess yield:
+1.21%
PROFITABLE